Articles by Doug.Farrar

We don’t need to name names when it comes to prominent draft busts over time. We all know the guilty parties who flamed out spectacularly when it came time to make the NCAA-to-NFL transition, and this article really isn’t about that, anyway.
Because most of those big-time draft busts had issues above the neck that prevented them from reaching their athletic potential. What we’re doing here with the “buyer beware” traits of six big-time 2025 draft prospects is what NFL teams have to measure with every prospect, because no college player comes into the NFL fully-formed. There are always necessary tweaks to make, and even if those don’t quite work out, these non-fatal flaws might not prevent these guys from succeeding at the next level to greater or lesser degrees.
When it comes to the larger issues that need to be smoothed over, it’s less about beatitude, and more about the positional nuances that tend to separate the good from the great in the NFL.
With that, here are the caveat emptors for six highly prized prospects in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado
What’s the problem? Drifting in the pocket.
Last season, behind an offensive line that could charitably be characterized as really, really bad, Sanders was the FBS’s most-pressured quarterback. Per Pro Football Focus, Sanders was disrupted in some fashion on 204 of his 563 dropbacks in the 2024 season, and that’s no way to live from an offensive perspective.
It’s not that Sanders was statistically horrible under pressure – far from it. He completed 76 of 138 passes when pressured for 1,117 yards, 12 touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 95.6, which was third-best in the FBS among quarterbacks who took at least 50% of their teams’ snaps behind Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel and Tulane’s Darian Mensah.
Sanders is a good thrower outside the pocket, despite the “unathletic” tag some have given him. Per Sports Info Solutions, he completed 56 of 89 passes outside the pocket last season for 715 yards, 369 air yards, seven touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 104.8.
So everything would seem to be fine here. But there’s also the fact that Sanders took 23 sacks outside the pocket last season, by far the most in college football – Washington State’s John Mateer ranked second with 16.
It’s not uncommon for quarterbacks who are pressured pretty much all the time to develop counter-intuitive “strategies” to deal with it, and one such mitigation Sanders has developed is a tendency to drift in the pocket. That’s different than moving outside the pocket by design or desperation; drifting in the pocket means that the quarterback is floating away from pressure in ways that decrease his accuracy and velocity from a mechanical angle.
Quarterbacks can be cured of the drifting thing over time with good coaching, so it’s not a career death sentence. But it is something that Sanders’ NFL coaching staff will have to address right off the bat.

It’s easy to attribute Shedeur Sanders’ tendency to drift in the pocket to his protection at Colorado, and there’s something to that. But it can be a tough habit to break after you pick it up. pic.twitter.com/B7hxDB7eL0— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) April 7, 2025

Cam Skattebo, RB, Arizona State
What’s the problem? Ball security.
In an uber-loaded running back class, where will Cam Skattebo be selected? If you’re into box-score scouting, Skattebo would seem to be a first-round pick. In 2024, he gained 1,712 yards – second in the FBS behind Ashton Jeanty’s 2,595 – and scored 21 touchdowns on 294 attempts. Skattebo also caught 44 passes on 52 targets for 543 yards and three touchdowns, so he checks the versatility boxes. Nobody will ever forget his epic performance against Texas in the Peach Bowl, when Skattebo did everything possible to win the game, though the Sun Devils lost, 39-21.
Skattebo does not possess top-end speed, but that’s not really a “buyer beware” thing, because everybody’s already aware of it. Despite that, he managed 21 runs of 15 or more yards last season.
The issue we’re dealing with here is Skattebo’s issues with ball security. Last season, he fumbled four times and had two easy dropped passes. In two seasons at Sacramento State and two more at the bigger school, Skattebo totaled 10 fumbles and five dropped passes. The fumbles can be said to be an outgrowth of his powerful, scattershot running style, and while that style is both attractive and productive, you can bet that at the NFL level, when defenders see Skattebo coming, they’ll be looking to “Peanut Punch” him into oblivion.

Cam Skattebo is an interesting and productive prospect, and his tape is generally a ton of fun to watch. That said, there are times when you wish he’d leave his can of ball repellent at home. pic.twitter.com/W1sqFSg1jS— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) April 7, 2025

Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona
What’s the problem? Drops.
At 6’4 and 219 pounds, Tetairoa McMillan is the most interesting contested-catch ball-winner in this draft class. Last season, the Arizona star had 39 contested targets among his 130 overall targets, and generally speaking, he was able to turn those 50/50 balls into 80/20 balls in his favor. 27 of his 39 contested targets were completions, and McMillan averaged 10.8 yards per reception when he did dominate at the catch point.
Despite his physical style and downfield speed that reminds some of Mike Evans, there is a boom-or-bust element to McMillan’s game, and that – oddly enough – comes from a tendency to drop the ball when he’s targeted on easier routes with designed openings. McMillan had nine drops last season, and while a few were the result of mis-timed throws to a point, it could also be argued that if you’re taking a receiver in the top 10 (which is where a lot of mock drafts have McMillan going), you want a receiver with a wider catch radius than you get when he’s standing still.
Focus drops, on the other hand, can be tough things to overcome. Some receivers can be coached out of them over time, but history tells us that generally speaking, once the pattern is there, it’s something that quarterbacks and coaches will have to deal with to a greater or lesser degree. Hopefully, McMillan is able to beat the odds on that at the next level.

There are those prospects who make the hard stuff look easy, and the easy stuff look hard. Tetairoa McMillan might be one of those guys. He can be a contested-catch wizard at times, and then… well… there’s this. pic.twitter.com/ZbTXiAMrfx— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) April 7, 2025

Will Campbell, OT, LSU
What’s the problem? Leakage to either side.
Teams desire different attributes in offensive linemen, but no matter where you swing on the scale, and regardless of whether you think he should kick inside or not, you probably have a first-round grade on LSU offensive tackle Will Campbell. A starter from the moment he arrived on campus in 2022, Campbell has allowed just four sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 32 quarterback pressures in 1,594 pass-blocking snaps in his estimable collegiate career.
One reason some NFL teams might prefer Campbell at guard is the measurables. At 6’5 ⅞ and 319 pounds, Campbell has a 77 ⅜-inch wingspan that is seventh percentile for all offensive linemen since 1999. His 32 ⅝-inch arm length is 21st percentile, and his 9 ½-inch hand size is 18th percentile.
Whether these things show up in the metrics or not as much as you’d expect them to, they do show up on tape. There were quite a few reps from last season, regardless of the caliber of edge rusher Campbell faced, where he allowed either speed pressure from his outside shoulder around the arc, or inside pressure on counters and stunts.
Kudos to Campbell for adapting with hand strength and foot movement, but this particular issue of allowing defenders to creep to the quarterback from either side of his body? Well, as we’re about to detail, most NCAA pass-rushers don’t have the technical awareness you get with edge disruptors in the NFL. And with that in mind, Campbell could find his “buyer beware” traits magnified in a negative sense when it’s time to suit up with the best the world has to offer.

I like Will Campbell; I really do. But the tendency to allow leakage to either side is a concern that goes beyond his blocking metrics. pic.twitter.com/brUiekXRBz— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) April 7, 2025

Shemar Stewart, EDGE, Texas A&M
What’s the problem? The lack of a pass-rush plan.
If there’s one thing I’ve learned in almost 20 years of evaluating draft prospects, it’s that you have to project a lot of attributes when it comes to pass-rushers. Because what you see more often than not, and this is true for some of the best QB Killas in any class, is that against collegiate blockers, it can be enough to use demon speed and/or grown-ass man strength to get to the pocket.
Of course, when you’re dealing with 10-year NFL veterans, you had better bring a few more tools in the toolbox. And that’s where Shemar Stewart comes in. Or, it could be more accurately said, that’s where Shemar Stewart does not yet arrive.
There’s been all kinds of talk about Stewart’s athletic freakishness vs. his lack of production, and both things are true. Stewart rushed the passer for the Aggies at 6-foot-5 and about 280 pounds; he slimmed down to 267 for the combine and aced all the drills to a historical degree.
So why did this alien amass just two sacks and 39 total pressures last season, and six sacks with 79 total pressures over three seasons? Stewart’s career numbers would be top-notch for most edge defenders over one season.
When you watch the tape, the answer is clear. With his combination of size and athleticism, Stewart can physically overwhelm a lot of offensive tackles whose future does not align with the NFL. And there are too many reps in which Stewart gets erased by offensive linemen (and tight ends and running backs, it must be said), because he does not yet possess the counter moves required once your initial plan simply doesn’t work.
Can Stewart’s NFL team outfit him with an entire palette of pro-quality pass-rush moves, starting from zero? Anything’s possible, but it’s a big ask, and it won’t happen overnight.

I’m not criticizing Shemar Stewart specifically for his lack of a pass-rush plan — this is true for nearly every NCAA QB disruptor to a greater or lesser degree. But in Stewart’s case, there is a lot of work to be done. pic.twitter.com/QlvC6W9ZDJ— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) April 7, 2025

Malaki Starks, Safety, Georgia
What’s the problem? Vapor-locks in coverage.
We live in an era where versatility is prized above all when it comes to defensive backs, and that’s true at both the collegiate and professional levels. The more you can do, the more NFL teams want you.
Of course, the problem with getting caught up in all that hypothetical versatility is when you get your hands on a jack-of-all-trades who struggles to be a master of anything. Not everybody can do all the things required of the position all the time.
Which brings us to Georgia safety Malaki Starks. Last season, Starks had 400 snaps at free safety, 271 in the slot, 215 in the box, and 10 each at both cornerback and on the edge. Starks allowed 34 catches on 51 targets for 453 yards, 190 yards after the catch, two touchdowns, one interception, two pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 99.6.
Projecting Starks as a similar do-it-all guy at the NFL level is really tough, because as athletic as he can be on the field, the lapses in coverage are severe and too frequent, and I’m not sure how you correct that. I’d need to watch tape with Starks to get his insight into why these things happen – maybe he’s not being put in the right positions to succeed – but when you have too many examples of a coverage defender in the wrong place and the wrong time, getting beaten by being out of place, and trying to use his recovery speed to atone for those sins… well, how does that get better when he hits the NFL?
Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio said last year of versatile rookie defensive back Cooper DeJean that the idea was to start with the thing DeJean did best, and then mix in all the other stuff. DeJean, who was far more on point from a coverage perspective, had an outstanding season as a result. Starks will need that level of coaching understanding, and probably even more than DeJean got.

I can’t shake the (early good version of) Jamal Adams hit I get from Malaki Starks. He’s a gifted athlete who has good plays just about everywhere, but the vapor-locks in coverage are weird. Too many plays where you wonder what he’s thinking, or has been directed to do. pic.twitter.com/15ulCP4KPC— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) April 7, 2025 […]

Things have been rather… interesting for the Indianapolis Colts at the quarterback position since Andrew Luck’s surprise retirement on Aug. 24, 2019 at age 29. Since then, they’ve cycled through Brian Hoyer, Jacoby Brissett, Philip Rivers, Jacob Eason, Sam Ehlinger, Carson Wentz, Nick Foles, Matt Ryan, Gardner Minshew II, and Joe Flacco.
Anthony Richardson, selected with the fourth overall pick in the 2023 draft out of Florida, was supposed to stop the maddening churn of mediocrity. The Colts were betting on Richardson’s potential, because he was the starter for just one season (2022) with the Gators, and overall in three collegiate seasons, he completed 213 of 395 passes (53.9%) for 3,107 yards (7.9 yards per attempt), 24 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, and a passer rating of 84.2. Richardson also ran 154 times for 1,189 yards (7.7 yards per carry), and 12 touchdowns. Based on that, and based on the fact that he did show improvement as a pure passer over that one starting season, the Colts took the leap of faith that Richardson could and would become a plus NFL quarterback over time. Because you don’t take a guy that high unless you truly believe that he can tilt the field.
The Colts also ostensibly paired Richardson with the perfect head coach and offensive shot-caller in Shane Steichen, the former Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator hired after he turned Jalen Hurts into the perfect bridge between Philly’s passing and running games.
It’s not been entirely Richardson’s fault, but so far, the results have not been what anybody hoped. In two NFL seasons, Richardson has completed 176 of 348 passes (50.6%) for 2,391 yards (6.9 yards per attempt), 11 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, and a passer rating of 67.8. He’s also run the ball 111 times for 635 yards (5.7 yards per carry), 10 touchdowns… and 12 fumbles.
It’s never good when your efficiency metrics plummet in the transition from the NCAA to the NFL; it could also be said that injuries have severely affected Richardson’s transition. He missed all but four games in his rookie campaign due to concussion issues and a Grade 3 AC joint (shoulder) sprain he suffered in Week 5 against the Tennessee Titans.
In 2024, Richardson managed 11 games and 11 starts, but things weren’t really rosy out there. He suffered an oblique injury that caused him to miss Weeks 5 and 6, he was benched in favor of Joe Flacco in mid-season, he famously took himself out for a play against the Houston Texans in Week 8 with the explanation that he “needed a breather,” and overall, Season 2 of the Richardson experiment concluded with the Colts convinced that Richardson would need competition for the starting job.
The rubber is about to meet the road.
Steichen said at his end-of-season presser on Jan. 6 that the idea of Richardson needing competition was a conversation that he and general manager Chris Ballard would be having. By the time the scouting combine rolled around, the decision had been made.
“I think it’s good,” Steichen said on February 25 about an open quarterback draw. “I think competition is great for everybody. Any time you have competition at any position, whether it’s the quarterback position or wherever it may be, I think it makes everyone better.”
And what did Steichen want to see from Richardson in the future?
“Consistency is the biggest thing. We’ve had those conversations… myself and him. Just being consistent. Obviously, he’s been on the field in 15 games in the last two years. He played 11 last year and did some really good things but just looking for consistency. Building on the fundamentals and obviously just continue to work on his passing. Getting the completion percentage up will be big going forward for him.”
The Colts signed Daniel Jones to a one-year, $14 million contract with $13.15 million fully guaranteed and a boatload of potential incentives on March 13, so now they’re rolling with two former high first-round picks who have never really lived up to their draft stock.
“I’m a natural competitor,” Richardson said in January of the quarterback books opening to just about anybody. “I’ve been competing all my life. I love competing. So, if the team feels like that’s the right direction we want to go in, I’m all for it. I’m competing. If not, I’m still here competing, working. Working my tail off to be the best version I can for this team. So I can’t really control everything that comes with the NFL, but I know I can control what I can and I’m going to do my part to be the best version of myself for this organization.”
So, if Steichen and his staff are to maximize Richardson’s attributes and cut down on the liabilities, how exactly do they do that… or is the Anthony Richardson decision just going to be one of those mistakes that every team makes from time to time?
The answer isn’t schematically simple.
Unlike a lot of developmental quarterbacks, Richardson doesn’t have the One Magical Thing that can be unlocked with the cunning and increased use of play-action, pre-snap motion, condensed formations, or one certain route concept. Richardson struggled more than he should have with those quarterback helpers last season, so we’re really talking about a fundamental improvement that begins with Richardson.
Play-action does help Richardson in the abstract because defenses have to be aware of him as a runner, so play-fakes will suck linebackers in and give Richardson the easy reads he needs at this point in his career. But even when he had the benefit of run/pass option, Richardson completed just nine of 16 passes for 68 yards, 5 air yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 47.9. Steichen is a master at designing the second- and third-level RPO in which receivers are open downfield, and Richardson was pretty spotty on some really simple stuff.

When you see a second-year NFL quarterback who threatens as a runner struggling with simple RPO passing concepts… that is indeed a problem. pic.twitter.com/w6eTeKBFuw— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) March 27, 2025

Steichen also gave Richardson quick, easy first reads with pre-snap motion that changed the defense’s passing strength, with mixed results. With plays like this, you understand the frustration.

So, it’s also not as simple as “Hey, just give Richardson the first read open” – the thing that Sean McVay used to save Jared Goff’s career back in the day. Steichen and his people have already done that. Richardson’s average time to throw of 2.76 seconds tied him with (you’ll pardon the expression) Deshaun Watson for the NFL’s sixth-highest among quarterbacks who took at least 20% of their teams’ snaps in 2024, but even on quick stuff like easy screens, it was hit-and-miss at best, as we’ve already seen.
Plus, if you reduce Anthony Richardson to a chuck-and-duck quarterback, you take away the one force-multiplier factor that does show up on tape. There are times when Richardson can make truly transcendent deep throws, and deep throws take time.

The Colts may be greasing the skids for the inevitable exit.
Highlight throws only hold one’s interest for so long, and the timeline becomes seriously compressed when a quarterback struggles with the basics. The Durham Bulls had one job: To turn Ebby Calvin ‘Nuke’ LaLoosh’s demon arm into something that was Major League-ready. That LaLoosh struck out 18 batters (a new league record) didn’t matter as much as the 18 batters he walked (another new league record!) in his first game.
So far, Anthony Richardson has not found his Crash Davis – the wizard mentor who could unlock his rare potential. And given how the Colts have opened the door to any competition, it would appear that Steichen and Ballard are preparing for the possibility that their movie has a more unpleasant ending.
That makes 2025 a true make-or-break season for Richardson. His team has done everything possible to lay the groundwork for his NFL success. But at some point, the player must meet the challenge. If that doesn’t happen in the upcoming season, and Daniel Jones is throwing ducks by Week 8, it’s hard to blame the Colts for blowing the whole thing up and starting from scratch if that’s what they do..
(All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus and Sports Info Solutions). […]

Super Bowl winners aren’t based entirely on superstars; they’re created by filling all the holes on their rosters intelligently and with the right money allotted to the right talent.
As much as the 2024 Philadelphia Eagles had it going on with Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, the best offensive line in football, and a host of first-line defensive talent, there were as many guys like Zack Baun, who signed a one-year, $3.5 million contract to be part of the show. Vic Fangio saw enough in Baun to expand his role, and Baun responded with an All-Pro season that netted him a fat three-year, $51 million contract this year.
So, when you’re looking to fill out your roster in the hopes of making it to next season’s Super Bowl, it behooves you to strike as many ridiculous bargains as possible. Based on the contracts that have already been drawn up in the 2025 free-agency space, here are the best bargains on the offensive side of the ball – the potential difference-makers whose contracts barely made a dent in the salary cap.
Rico Dowdle, RB, Carolina Panthers
If you’re familiar with the “Secret Superstars” column I did for SB Nation last season, you may remember that Dallas Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle made the team following his explosive performance vs. the Carolina Panthers in a 30-14 Week 15 win. Dowdle, the 2020 undrafted free agent out of South Carolina, had a career day with 149 yards and several explosive plays on 25 carries. But this wasn’t the only highlight reel Dowdle had last season. He put up 131 rushing yards against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 14, 112 against the New York Giants in Week 13, and 104 against the Eagles in Week 17.
After three seasons of never gaining more than 372 yards in a season, Dowdle somehow managed to save a Dallas running game that was supposed to be nonexistent. He totaled 1,079 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 235 carries (4.6 yards per carry), with 45 forced missed tackles and 26 runs of 10 or more yards.
So the Panthers did the old “If you can’t beat him, have him join us” thing and signed Dowdle to a one-year, $6.25 million deal that is one of the sneakier-good bargains in this free-agency cycle. A versatile back equally adept in zone and man blocking concepts, Dowdle should be an important addition to Dave Canales’ Panthers offense.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, WR, Miami Dolphins
There are always those contracts that make you wonder if you’re missing a typo, or perhaps somebody forgot to carry the 1. In the case of former Tennessee Titans receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, who signed a two-year, $6.5 million contract with $3.2 million guaranteed, it would appear that the entire National Football League is unaware of what this guy can do.
Last season, with Will Levis and Mason Rudolph as his primary quarterbacks, the 2020 UDFA from Indiana caught 32 passes on 56 targets for 497 yards… and nine touchdowns. And on a per-target basis, there were few more effective deep targets in the league. In the eight times he was targeted on passes of 20 or more air yards, Westbrook-Ikhine caught four passes for 197 yards and three touchdowns. And at 6’2 and 211 pounds, Westbrook-Ikhine is also an outstanding contested-catch receiver (the secret to a lot of those touchdowns), and a fine blocker when it’s time to run the ball.
Dolphins head coach and offensive shot-caller Mike McDaniel has been working for years to put a track team on the field with his receiver corps, and now he’s got another effective speedster to go along with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Moreover, he’s got his new one at a ridiculous price.

I had to make sure this one wasn’t a typo. The @MiamiDolphins got WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine for two years, $6.5 million? Dude was an explosive play machine for the @Titans last season with no QB help at all. Mike McDaniel just got even richer with his deep threats. pic.twitter.com/8Q0XhxyEWQ— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) March 13, 2025

Dyami Brown, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Last season for the Jacksonville Jaguars, rookie first-round receiver Brian Thomas Jr. stuck out in a sea of relative mediocrity at the position – especially when it came to dominating defenses vertically. Thomas caught 12 passes of 20 or more air yards in his debut season on 30 targets for 479 yards and four touchdowns, and he was the only Trevor Lawrence target to bag more than five deep passes, and more than one deep touchdown.
This may be one reason that the Jags, under new head coach Liam Coen, sought out former Washington Commanders receiver Dyami Brown and got him into the fold on a one-year, $10 million contract that could turn out to be a major bargain if Brown is able to replicate the vertical success he had last season when Jayden Daniels was throwing him the ball.
Last season, Brown managed four deep catches on just nine targets for 179 yards and a touchdown, and the tape tells you that if the Jags want to double Brown’s target share on the deep stuff, he’s more than up for it. Add in Brown’s ability to take screen passes and simple stop routes upfield, and his knack for taking end-around stuff for long gains, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Brown is one of those Secret Superstars more than once in the 2025 season.

Outside of Brian Thomas Jr., the @Jaguars didn’t have any receivers who consistently tested defenses deep on vertical stuff last season. Dyami Brown should change that. Brown adds some versatility on end-around concepts, and he can take screens and stop routes a long way. pic.twitter.com/klGboaAAO1— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) March 13, 2025

Evan Engram, TE, Denver Broncos
On the other side of things, the Jaguars released tight end Evan Engram in early March, and the Denver Broncos signed the veteran to a two-year, $23 million deal with $16.5 million guaranteed. Engram had been one of the NFL’s most-targeted tight ends in both 2022 and 2023, his first two seasons with the Jags. But a torn labrum in his left shoulder limited Engram to just 47 catches on 62 targets for 365 yards and a touchdown.
Engram might not be ready for action until the season begins (or close to it), and perhaps that’s why he was available for a lowball deal in contrast to his production before last season, But what the 30-year-old put on tape in the 2024 season makes me wonder if the rest of the league missed something.
Broncos head coach Sean Payton has always been a master when it comes to developing and deploying tight ends, and he doesn’t need to worry about the development part here. Engram is still a considerable vertical threat in the right route combinations, he’s an outstanding contested-catch target, he knows how get open in compressed spaces (hello, red zone), and in the short-to-intermediate areas of the passing game, he could be Bo Nix’s new best friend.

I’m guessing that Sean Payton can’t WAIT to draw stuff up for Evan Engram. Underrated contested-catch whiz with some explosive ability. He’ll keep Bo Nix happy in the short-to-intermediate passing game. pic.twitter.com/cQwOBEKdGa— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) March 13, 2025

Also: It would appear that Engram has been told he’ll be moved around the formation in Denver, and he’s pretty happy about that “Joker” role.

Morgan Moses, OT, New England Patriots
When it comes to offensive tackles, it’s not always necessary to have Hall of Fame attributes. Sure, it’d be great if your team could find the next Walter Jones or Joe Thomas in the draft, but the hit rate on such players isn’t exactly high. Generational guys are rare for a reason. Most of the time, what you want (and need) from a left or right tackle is a player who will hold up his side of the line more often than not, understand the protections, and be able to block in any scheme at an above-average level.
This is certainly true for the New England Patriots, whose 2024 offensive line was problematic just about everywhere, and especially on the outside to both sides. At right tackle, the combination of Mike Onwenu, Calvin Anderson, and Vederian Lowe did very little to give rookie quarterback Drake Maye the ideal opportunities to succeed.
In comes veteran Morgan Moses on a three-year, $24 million contract with $11 million guaranteed. Moses isn’t the NFL’s best right tackle, but he’s reliable and consistent in all the ways we’ve discussed, and he brings leadership to a line that will be in flux once again.

Morgan Moses on whether or not he is ready to be a leader for the #Patriots:“I’ll tell you this man my great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great grandfather parted the Red Sea a long time ago. I was built for this.”( Patriots Unfiltered) pic.twitter.com/7uNAEthbQ8— Carlos A. Lopez (@LosTalksPats) March 13, 2025

Last season for the New York Jets, Moses allowed two sacks, two quarterback hits, and 12 quarterback hurries on 467 pass-blocking reps in an Aaron Rodgers/Nathaniel Hackett offense that didn’t often make a lot of sense. And he’s stout enough as a run-blocker to be a major improvement for a team in desperate need.
Spectacular? No. Good enough to help you win? Absolutely, and that’s good enough in this case.

Morgan Moses is a Professional Football Player. He goes from team to team, plays well for the most part, and gives your offensive line a sense of stability. The @Patriots got all that on the cheap, and they desperately need it. pic.twitter.com/witC3gWS4t— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) March 13, 2025

James Daniels, OG, Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are another AFC East team for whom “league average” would be a big upgrade – and here we’re talking about the guard positions. Losing Robert Hunt to the Panthers in free agency before the 2024 season was a hit from which the franchise wasn’t able to recover, and having Liam Eichenberg replacing Hunt at right guard? Well, that didn’t work out so well.
In the interest of making things better for Tua Tagovailoa and all those speedy receivers, Miami signed former Chicago Bears and Pittsburgh Steelers right guard James Daniels to a three-year, $24 million contract with $10.735 million guaranteed.
2024 was shaping up to be a great season for Daniels until he suffered a torn Achilles tendon in Week 4, and that was it for his season. But when on the field for the Steelers, Daniels was right in there, doing his job in every way possible – very good pass pro, the ability to physically dominate defenders at the line of scrimmage and the second level, and no issues with any kind of scheme.

The @MiamiDolphins got an injury discount with guard James Daniels, but beggars can’t be choosers, and Miami’s guard situation was El Stinko Profundo last season. A healthy Daniels will do a lot to reverse that trend. pic.twitter.com/T37bHY2FY2— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) March 13, 2025

If Daniels comes back fully healthy in 2024, that injury discount for the Dolphins will be significant… and Daniels will announce his presence with authority on the field. […]

Super Bowl winners aren’t based entirely on superstars; they’re created by filling all the holes on their rosters intelligently and with the right money allotted to the right talent.
As much as the 2024 Philadelphia Eagles had it going on with Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, the best offensive line in football, and a host of first-line defensive talent, there were as many guys like Zack Baun, who signed a one-year, $3.5 million contract to be part of the show. Vic Fangio saw enough in Baun to expand his role, and Baun responded with an All-Pro season that netted him a fat three-year, $51 million contract this year.
So, when you’re looking to fill out your roster in the hopes of making it to next season’s Super Bowl, it behooves you to strike as many ridiculous bargains as possible. Based on the contracts that have already been drawn up in the 2025 free-agency space, here are the best bargains on the defensive side of the ball – the potential difference-makers whose contracts barely made a dent in the salary cap.
Roy Robertson-Harris, DL, New York Giants
Over time, there are those players who you just wind up inexplicably liking based on their tape, and you can’t really let it go. Defensive lineman Roy Robertson-Harris has been one of My Guys for a few years now, and that process amplified itself over his three full seasons with the Jacksonville Jaguars from 2021 through 2023. At 6’5 and 290 pounds, Robertson-Harris can line up outside the tackles, over the tackles, and outside the guards, and he can disrupt and pursue from all of those gaps. The Jaguars gave Robertson-Harris a three-year, $30 million extension in 2023, and traded him for a sixth-round pick in October of 2024.
Now, Robertson-Harris gets a two-year, $9 million deal with $5.3 million guaranteed, and this could work out very well on a Big Blue line that already has an embarrassment of riches with Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns, and Kayvon Thibodeaux. It’s a major bargain for a guy who had two sacks and 16 total pressures on 226 pass-rushing snaps last season for two teams, and is capable of more with just one.

The @Giants got Roy Robertson-Harris for… well, not a lot. Put him on a line with Sexy Dexy, Brian Burns, Thibodeaux, etc., and things could get interesting. pic.twitter.com/00OKNS3EQ1— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) March 13, 2025

Leonard Floyd, EDGE, Atlanta Falcons
The list of pass-rushers with the most regular-season sacks from 2020-2024 starts out about as you’d expect: T.J. Watt, Myles Garrett, Trey Hendrickson, Nick Bosa, Micah Parsons, Haason Reddick, and Maxx Crosby. No. 8 on that list is Leonard Floyd, who has been well-traveled in recent years.
Floyd signed a four-year, $64 million contract with the Los Angeles Rams in 2021, and was released after the 2022 season. He signed a one-year, $7 million deal with the Buffalo Bills in 2023, and moved to the San Francisco 49ers in 2024 on a two-year deal. Floyd totaled 11 sacks and 44 total pressures on 373 pass-rushing snaps last season, excelling when Nick Bosa struggled with injuries, but he was cast aside in San Francisco’s massive salary cap dump this year. So, the Falcons were able to nab him on a one-year, $10 million, fully-guaranteed contract.
For a Falcons defense in desperate need of edge help, this is a major addition. Floyd can rock blockers back with speed-to-power moves, he can bend the edge and flatten his rush path, and he can also jump several gaps in a big hurry to mess with protections and get to the quarterback.
Floyd will turn 33 on Sept. 8, and he’s not likely a long-term solution, but as general manager Terry Fontenot and head coach Raheem Morris move to accentuate their pass-rush plan overall, the veteran provides an easy answer, and he solves at least part of the puzzle.

Deatrich Wise Jr., EDGE, Washington Commanders
The Commanders did have two 10-sack edge rushers last season in Dante Fowler Jr. and Dorance Armstrong in 2024, and both are still on the roster for 2025, but you know how it is — you can never have too many pass disruptors. That’s why Washington stole former New England Patriots edge-rusher Deatrich Wise Jr. on a one-year, $5 million deal that could pay major dividends.
Last season, the 2017 fourth-round pick out of Arkansas totaled five sacks and 20 total pressures on just 269 pass-rushing snaps, and at 6’5 and 280 pounds, he’s got some inside/outside flexibility. Two of his sacks and six of his total pressures happened when Wise was aligned inside the tackles.
Going back to Michael Bennett with the Legion of Boom Seattle Seahawks when Commanders head coach Dan Quinn was the defensive coordinator and defensive line coach in 2013 and 2014, Quinn has always loved – and has always known how to best utilize – those edge dudes who could mess with protections by moving around the line. Wise projects to be another, and he’s got all the tools to do it.

Robert Spillane, LB, New England Patriots
The Patriots, Wise’s former team, have made it abundantly clear that they’re going all-in on big-ticket defensive talent in this free agency slate. Former Philadelphia Eagles game-wrecking defensive lineman Milton Williams got the largest contract (four years, $104 million, $66 million guaranteed) in 2025 free agency regardless of position, and the Pats also signed edge rusher Harold Landry and cornerback CarltonDavis to fill major roles for major dollars.
A relatively unheralded contract that could also be a big deal on the field is the three-year, $33 million contract with $20.6 million guaranteed given to former Las Vegas Raiders linebacker Robert Spillane. Over six NFL seasons (four with the Pittsburgh Steelers and the last two with the Raiders), Spillane has turned himself into the kind of linebacker the NFL finds most appealing — the kind of linebacker who can do just about everything. Last season in a defense that didn’t always make a ton of sense, Spillane had two sacks, 13 total pressures, 110 solo tackles, 51 stops, and he allowed 55 catches on 65 targets for 572 yards, 294 yards, four touchdowns, two interceptions, four pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 111.0.
Spillane can play half-field linebacker all day in nickel packages, and if you want to play dime with him as the only linebacker on the field, he’s just fine with that as well. He’s the lower-cost cog who will give the high-priced guys around him that much more flexibility.

Donte Jackson, CB, Los Angeles Chargers
Head coach Jim Harbaugh made the decision to bring Jesse Minter, his former defensive coordinator at Michigan, to L.A. in that same role, The 2024 Chargers ranked ninth in Defensive DVOA after finishing 26th in 2023. Minter’s not tied to one type of coverage — the Chargers are just as likely to run single-high as they are to go across the field with Cover-4 or Cover-6 — but if you’re going to play in Minter’s defense, you’d better have your assignments and match rules together, or you won’t be on the field for long.
The Chargers found a real up-and-comer in fifth-round rookie Tarheeb Still last season, and they lost Kristian Fulton in free agency to the Chiefs. The most interesting free-agent reinforcement is former Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers cornerback Donte Jackson, who signed a two-year, $13 million contract to be a part of the next iteration of Minter’s defense.
The contract looks like a real bargain based purely on Jackson’s metrics and tape with the 2024 Steelers. He allowed 38 catches on 62 targets for 508 yards, 241 yards after the catch, four touchdowns, five interceptions, three pass deflections, and an opponent passer rating of 75.2. When Jackson did get beaten for touchdowns, it was by guys like A.J. Brown and Ja’Marr Chase, and he wasn’t really badly beaten — these were one or two-step deals that could have gone either way.
On the plus side, what makes Jackson a good fit for what Minter wants to do is that he’s very sticky when he’s matched up on a receiver through the route, and he has the field vision to break off from his own assignments to prevent plays with picks and deflections.

In Jesse Minter’s @chargers defense, you have to be able to seamlessly disguise coverage, know where your help is and when you’re the help, and get aggressive to the ball when the fundamentals are set. I think that CB Donte Jackson is a great fit for all of it. pic.twitter.com/4GWggNBqQc— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) March 14, 2025

Especially for the price the Chargers paid, we may well look back at the Donte Jackson deal as one of those contracts which really helped a team deep into the playoffs. […]

The Chicago Bears as a franchise have always been known far more for stout and amazing defenses than they have been for revolutionary offenses. The “Monsters of the Midway” moniker always referred to the Bears’ defenses from the eras of Bill George and Dick Butkus all the way up to the more modern times of Charles “Peanut” Tillman and Brian Urlacher.
But now, with new head coach Ben Johnson in charge of things, the Bears’ new “Monsters of the Midway” live comfortably along the team’s interior offensive line. This was very much a part of a plan that began with the hire of Johnson, formerly the Detroit Lions’ offensive coordinator, and it extended to not only improving, but outright flipping major parts of the front five as the analyzed needs arose.
“We want a physical group,” Johnson said from the scouting combine in late February. “Alright? It starts with that. And that’s not just the offensive line – that’s the entire team. DA [defensive coordinator Dennis Allen] and I have been talking about what that looks like on defense. It’s going to look that way on offense. It starts in the trenches up front. We talk about finishing in a dominant position. We want to be around the football. The best football players, they finish around the ball. So, that’s what you’re going to see from the five guys that we roll into. And it’s not just going to be five. The last few years, it ends up being six, seven, eight, nine guys end up playing a significant number of snaps. So, we got to find those five best guys, but we also have to get a good bullpen, if you will, ready to go in at a moment’s notice.”
As far as flipping the line with major changes, Johnson had no issue with that at all.
Yeah, I think it’s been done before,” he said. “Right? I mean, there are a number of teams that did that last year. The Panthers come to mind when they went out in free agency and got a couple top guards, really changed the dynamic of their offense. You saw them clicking there in the second half of the season once they started to really gel. There’s no question that you can change the dynamic of a room just like that. That particular room, it does take time for five guys to come together. Especially if you have to deal with attrition and injuries for five guys to be working on the same page.
“When you watch the tape and you come away with… I think I made the statement in my opening press conference, that’s an area we have to get better. That doesn’t necessarily mean we need five new starters, because all it takes is one individual to blow up a play. And so we’re just identifying where we can get a little bit better, and we’re going to continue to raise that floor, and we’ll find the right mix of five to eight, nine, 10 guys.”
Well, let’s start with three. The Bears have officially flipped the entire interior of their offensive line with three major moves. The first move that took place happened on March 4, when Chicago traded a 2025 sixth-round draft pick to the Los Angeles Rams for guard Jonah Jackson. The Bears also took on the remainder of the three year, $51 million contract with $34 million guaranteed that Jackson signed before the 2024 season.
That 2024 season didn’t work out for Jackson or for the Rams in that regard. Jackson suffered a fractured scapula in September and was only able to play four regular-season games, and one snap in Los Angeles’ divisional-round loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.
What Johnson was likely looking at with this trade was how well Jackson had played for the Lions under Johnson’s purview. Because in 2023, Jackson was a great guard in about every way you want a guard to be.

Go back to Jonah Jackson’s non-injury 2023 season, because that’s what Ben Johnson and the Bears traded for/are paying for. Outstanding to the second level, on pulls, and at the LOS when battering tackles in the run game or pass-blocking. Not as agile as Thuney, but really good. pic.twitter.com/IGw3ZsjmQi— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) March 10, 2025

It took the Bears exactly one day to drop the next hammer; that happened when they sent a 2026 fourth-round pick to the Kansas City Chiefs for Joe Thuney, one of the best guards of his era, and a guy who had to fill in at left tackle down the stretch for the AFC champions when their left tackle situation fell apart. The Bears took on $16 million in salary cap with Thuney, as he’s on the last year of the five year, $80 million contract he signed with Kansas City in 2021. Thuney is nobody’s idea of an ideal left tackle, but as a pure guard, the 32-year-old has quite a bit left in the tank.

Joe Thuney has been one of the NFL’s best and smartest guards for quite a few years. Not a mauler per se; just a pitch-perfect technician. Can’t say enough about what the Bears have done for their interior offensive line. pic.twitter.com/1jdw9bqO0l— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) March 10, 2025

Then, on Monday, the Bears took the best center on the open market off the open market in Drew Dalman, formerly of the Falcons. Dalman has a new three-year, $42 million deal with $28 million guaranteed. Like Thuney, Dalman is more technician than mauler, though he can get grimy when the need arises.

Dalman can block anything, but he’s really great on the move. The Bears have done massive work on their O-line in the last week. https://t.co/YOd7KMZ4TE— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) March 10, 2025

More importantly, both Dalman and Thuney have the intellectual chops to block up Johnson’s run concepts, which were among the NFL’s most varied and effective when he ran the Lions’ offense. And Jackson will have no trouble remembering the entire playbook.
Do the Bears still have some questions to answer at their tackle spots? Absolutely. Left tackle Braxton Jones allowed five sacks and 26 total pressures on 471 pass-blocking reps last season, right tackle Darnell Wright gave up six sacks and 30 total pressures on 662 pass-blocking snaps, and swing tackle Larry Borom got absolutely viced on both sides of the line in 2024, allowing seven sacks and 22 total pressures on just 237 pass-blocking chances.
But Chicago also has the 10th, 39th, and 41st picks in the 2025 draft if they want to reinforce those positions early on in late April, and the free-agency additions of defensive linemen Grady Jarrett and Dayo Odeyingbo give Johnson and general manager Ryan Poles the flexibility to focus on other spots with the other side of the interior also bolstered in a very positive sense.
So, the Bears’ new Monsters of the Midway are indeed on the offensive side of the ball. We’ll see how Ben Johnson, quarterback Caleb Wiliams, and the rest of that offense benefits, but based on the talent and the plan, the effects could be game-changing. […]

On Friday, the Washington Commanders announced that they would be releasing veteran defensive lineman Jonathan Allen after eight seasons. The team will save $16.3 million in salary cap space with the release. Allen had asked permission to seek a trade this offseason, but with no suitors for the $15.5 million in base salary remaining on the four-year, $72 million contract extension he signed in 2021, Allen is now a free agent.
Selected with the 17th overall pick in the first round of the 2017 draft out of Alabama, Allen made the Pro Bowl in 2021 and 2022, which was especially interesting as Jack Del Rio was his… um… “defensive coordinator.” Ha!
Despite that clear handicap, Allen totaled 18 sacks and 114 total pressures, with 77 solo tackles and 75 stops in those two seasons alone. 2023 was similarly disruptive, as Allen had six sacks, 49 total pressures, 39 solo tackles, and 37 stops.
Sadly, when Dan Quinn became the Commanders’ head coach before the 2024 season, Allen was relatively unable to benefit from Quinn’s defensive creativity, especially along the fronts. Allen was limited to 440 snaps in 2024 because he was dealing with a torn left pectoral muscle he suffered in Week 6 against the Baltimore Ravens. Originally, the injury was thought to be season-ending, but Allen returned for the field in Week 17 against the Atlanta Falcons, and he was able to play through the Commanders’ NFC Championship Game loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.
“Seeing the surgeon, seeing that process go… he looked not like a person that had this surgery,” Quinn said in mid-December. “Usually, you see a lot less on one side. He’s built different for sure.”
Overall in 2024, Allen totaled three sacks, 26 total pressures, 21 solo tackles, and 18 stops. If you extrapolate that over a full season, Allen could be seen to play at his former heights, and in multiple gaps. Last season, per Pro Football Focus, Allen lined up as a nose tackle on 6% of his snaps, as a defensive tackle on 79% of his snaps, and on the edge 14% of the time.
But when it comes to Allen’s value to his next NFL team, there’s one metric we rarely talk about. How many times is a defensive lineman double-teamed in a season? If said lineman is the primary focus of extra offensive linemen when he’s in there, that value is obvious. Especially if that lineman can knife through those double-teams, of course, but also because those doubles give other rushers and disruptors the ability to win one-on-one matchups when the alpha of the group is taking on the main responsibilities.
And here is where Allen really was the Commanders’ lead dawg when healthy. On those 440 snaps, per independent charting, Allen was double-teamed in some form or fashion 121 times. That’s a 27.5% double-team rate, and when you have one guy doubled a bit more than one in every four plays, that’s a really big deal for everyone else.
And it wasn’t just that Allen unselfishly soaked up all those doubles so that others could eat; he was also slicing and dicing when given extra attention. 17 of his pressures came against double-teams, and whether he was bulling through them or running around them, Allen’s explosiveness against all that mass was clear and impressive.

Jonathan Allen was doubled on 121 of his 440 snaps last season, and he did stuff like this when doubled. More often than not, when he was on the field, the extra lineman would head his way. This despite a pectoral injury that cost him several weeks. Teams will want this. 🙂 pic.twitter.com/9nvYdPZ2QQ— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) March 7, 2025

It’s even more impressive that six of those pressures came after Allen returned from the injury that was supposed to have scuttled his entire season. The Eagles’ tremendous offensive line doubled Allen on 12 of his 60 plays in the aforementioned NFC Championship game, and it was abundantly clear who Philly considered the main problem to be – especially with the Eagles’ own interior line affected by injury issues.
Whether teams were truly doubling Allen through the entire rep, or trying to handle him with one constant lineman and another chipping briefly before heading to the second level, or attempting to deal with Allen by way of a lineman and a blocking back, it was very clear that every Commanders opponent saw Allen as a Very Big Problem regardless of alignment.
The Commanders will have to find another force multiplier in that regard. Daron Payne is the obvious guy with 190 double-teams last season on 821 plays, and perhaps second-year man Johnny Newton can take Allen’s place over time. In his rookie season, Newton faced double teams on 108 of his 608 plays.
But there’s no replacing a guy who forces protections to his personal gravity at the level Jonathan Allen does. That’s why, despite his recent injury history and his age (he turned 30 on Jan. 16), Allen will be highly prized not only for the ways in which he’s able to wreck backfields on his own, but also the extent to which he can help everyone around him increase their own numbers and effects.
Football, after all, is the ultimate team sport. And when it comes to forcing and subsequently obliterating double teams, there are few better teammates than Jonathan Allen. […]

NFL teams that are looking for potential franchise quarterbacks are in for an interesting journey in 2025.
The upcoming draft class is seen to be meh at best, and though I think that narrative is overcooked, there isn’t a lead-pipe lock as there was in 2024 with Jayden Daniels or Bo Nix or Caleb Williams. And in free agency, you’ve got Aaron Rodgers with all his ancillary drama, and a whole lot of “Oh well, whatever, never mind” behind him. Maybe you think you can ride with a Russell Wilson or a Justin Fields. Maybe you think you can be the one to corral Jameis Winston’s rogue tendencies enough to put the hay in the barn. Maybe you believe you can “fix” Zach Wilson or Trey Lance. Or perhaps you are in Daniel Jones’ corner, though I have no idea why you would be.
Regardless, the shopping list there is going to be adequate, at best.
The odd man out in this entire process appears to be Sam Darnold. And in Darnold’s case, it seems that he’s getting battered by recency bias to an extreme degree. In the 2024 regular season for head coach/offensive shot-caller Kevin O’Connell and the Minnesota Vikings, Darnold completed 361 of 545 passes (66.2%) for 4,319 yards (7.9 yards per attempt), 35 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and a passer rating of 102.5. Darnold was very good under pressure (13 touchdowns and five interceptions), he was lethal when blitzed (12 touchdowns and no interceptions), and he was a prolific and efficient deep passer.
The third overall pick of the New York Jets in 2018, who has cycled through multiple teams since then and had never put a definitive season together before, did just that under O’Connell’s leadership as a backup for injured 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy.
Now that McCarthy is ready to go after the torn right meniscus that cost him his rookie season, Darnold may or may not be in the Vikings’ future plans. And were it not for a very rough end to the season, things could be different there. Against the Detroit Lions in a 31-9 regular-season finale loss, and vs. the Los Angeles Rams in a 27-9 Wild Card loss, Darnold turned back into the pumpkin everybody was waiting for. In those two games, he completed 43 of 81 passes for 411 yards, one touchdown, one interception, and a passer rating of 66.4. Darnold regressed in every way possible. The deep accuracy was no longer there, he was a nightmare when throwing in the red zone, and that guy who had been so good under pressure suddenly fell right out the window.
“Darnold has really played better and better every week,” Lions head coach Dan Campbell said after Detroit’s regular-season beatdown of Darnold. “It feels like he’s just continued to make this gradual climb, and continued to improve, and what you really see is, man, when he gets the play-action pass and they nudge the edges, or they’ll max protect on some of this stuff, two-receiver routes, three-receiver routes, and he can see it and has time, he’s deadly, and we could not allow that to happen.
“We didn’t feel like there was any way we could let him sit back there because we did think he would pick us apart, you know? If you give him that much time, because he was playing at such a high level with the weapons they had, and so, we knew it needed to be the right balance of coverage and pressure, and we tried to bring more than they could handle for most of it, and then we had to hold on in the back end and those guys did, man. They really, they covered their tails off for most of that game.
“And then, we were able to play enough to where we could double (Vikings WR Justin Jefferson) 18, take care of him, and we singled some guys out — like (Lions LB) Alex (Anzalone) was one-on-one with (Vikings TE TJ) Hock (Hockenson) on a number of things. And so it just worked.”
That strategy doesn’t sound too dissimilar from what Vic Fangio’s Philadelphia Eagles defense did to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX. But as Mahomes has all the skins on the wall, that game was not a referendum on the quarterback. Darnold, still seen as a regular-season fluke by many in the know, had no such cachet. But that little disaster was more about what Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn put in the playbook than anything else — just as what Fangio did to Mahomes was impossible to counter.
Sometimes, the bear eats you.
So here we are with Darnold on the open market unless the Vikings re-sign him, and a less-than-definitive answer to the question, “Who the hell is Sam Darnold, anyway?”
Through most of the 2024 season, and with O’Connell as his perfect guide to a new level of quarterbacking, Darnold had stints in which he was about as good as any quarterback plying his trade in the NFL. Yes, it helps to have a schematic and motivational genius like O’Connell in your corner, and yes, it’s nice if you have the NFL’s best receiver in Justin Jefferson. But Darnold proved to be much more than a dreaded “system quarterback” – not every good throw he made under pressure or against complex coverage would have been thee for any other quarterback below the baseline.

After re-studying Sam Darnold’s 2024 season, I feel that recency bias has severely tweaked public perception of how good he was most of the way. Now, the question is, how can he build on stuff like this? pic.twitter.com/YuEsodhGbX— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) March 7, 2025

“I would be slow to say that the NFL world is giving up on quarterbacks,” O’Connell said at the scouting combine last week, when asked why people are so eager to insist that certain quarterbacks will never figure it out. “I think it’s become very popular for people to decide in the moment that people can or can’t play. They were right when they decided that about me as a player, but I think it’s always very important to evaluate each situation as its own.
“I view it more about us in regard to, what process do you have for the position? What do you ask the position to do in your offense? And then, how are you going to train it mentally, physically, technique and fundamentals to play the style that you believe will best suit them and allow them to sustain? And I think it’s hard to sustain. The greatest quarterbacks in our league, what separates them is their ability to do it week in and week out, regardless of circumstance, and it’s easier said than done, but we feel very strongly about our quarterback process that we go through.”
As he should, and Sam Darnold’s 2024 season was proof positive that O’Connell’s quarterback ideology is as foolproof as any can be for such a volatile position. Are we really assuming that Darnold will never be anything but a one-year wonder, or is it possible that what he did and what he learned about himself last season could be the springboard to the longer second act nobody expected?
Maybe other teams shouldn’t give up so easily if and when Sam Darnold is available as the new league year turns over next week. […]

The two weeks between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl are interesting for the two teams involved for a lot of reasons. Players and coaches have to deal with people coming out of the woodwork begging for tickets, the media exposure is at an entirely new level, and the silliness-to-football ratio can get out of hand if you’re not careful.
On the plus side, you generally have a lot more eyes on the scouting and matchup aspects of the actual game. Teams will bring in area scouts for their own expertise and perspective, and everything teams do to gain any advantage from a schematic standpoint is doubled and tripled with the extra people and time.
I’m just one guy with a laptop and a bunch of subscriptions to tape and metric services, but if the Kansas City Chiefs were to ask me to consult in any capacity (yeah, right), I would say that these three things are crucial to the Super Bowl three-peat they desire with only the Philadelphia Eagles standing in the way..
Don’t blitz Jalen Hurts.
Two things we know about Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo: He loves cornerbacks who can play press coverage, and he’s very much in favor of the blitz as a concept. This season, the Chiefs have sent extra rushers on 30% of their snaps, the sixth-highest rate in the NFL. But there is some susceptibility there. With five or more pass-rushers, Kansas City has allowed 120 completions on 189 attempts for 1,344 yards, 11 touchdowns, three interceptions, 12 pass breakups, and a passer rating of 97.4.
Spags might want to dial down those blitz tendencies against Jalen Hurts, because it’s one of the things Hurts has just demolished this season. Take the up-and-down nature of the Eagles’ passing game out of the discussion here, because this is a thing. Against five or more pass-rushers this season, Hurts has completed 84 of 121 passes for 1,098 yards, 505 yards after the catch, nine touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 119.1.
If you want to put Hurts in a box, the best bet is to flood the zones, give him disguised coverages, and hope that the hesitation to turn the ball loose that has been an issue through most of the season continues to rear its head. But sending the house against him tends to bring out the quickness and decisiveness he needs to succeed.

The Commanders blitzed Jalen Hurts on 13 of his 28 passing attempts. It did not go well for them. Hurts has ripped blitzes to shreds this season, because he’s very good at figuring out the openings in coverage, and operating in rhythm. pic.twitter.com/o6FUXkN2ta— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) January 30, 2025

Make sure your third-down dimes are worth it.
Here’s another Spags tendency to watch. The Chiefs have played dime on 33% of their third-down snaps, the highest rate in the league. And with six defensive backs on third down, they’ve allowed a league-high 228 yards and 125 yards after contact on a league-high 28 rushing attempts. This is where the Chiefs should be aware of Jalen Hurts as a runner – in those third-down 6DB situations, he’s gained 89 yards on just six carries. Oh, and that Saquon Barkley guy could be a problem, too.
Overall, the Eagles have run on third down more than any other team. By a LOT. They’ve carried the rock 114 times on the money down, and the Indianapolis Colts rank second with 74 attempts. Both Hurts and Barkley have crushed it in those situations. Hurts leads the NFL with 51 third-down runs for 238 yards, 114 yards after contact, and two touchdowns. Barkley’s 43 third-down runs ranks second in the league, and he’s gained 295 yards with 152 yards after contact, and four touchdowns.
This might be a case in which the Chiefs go with more nickel and base defense to counter all that. Would the Eagles go with a “You know that I know that you know” thing and throw the ball more on third down? We can but wait and see, but the Eagles appear primed to attack two of Spags’ primary constructs with authority.

No team has run more on third down this season than the Eagles. No team has played more dime defense on third down this season than the Chiefs. Just sayin’. pic.twitter.com/ugHOr7dcCU— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) January 30, 2025

Attack the Eagles defense underneath.
You’d figure that in an era where explosive passing plays are supposed to be the be-all and end-all, a team that is categorically incapable of producing them wouldn’t be anywhere near a Super Bowl. But here the Chiefs are in their third straight, and with the NFL’s worst downfield passing game to show for it. This season, Patrick Mahomes has completed just 13 of 51 passes of 20 or more air yards for 465 yards, four touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 58.5. Mahomes’ completion rate of 25.5% is the NFL’s worst among qualified quarterbacks.
So, how do the Chiefs get away with this? Because they have a sustaining passing game that is built on paper cut after paper cut, and they win that way. Mahomes has the NFL’s most attempts on passes behind the line of scrimmage this season with 135, completing 122 such passes for 670 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 92.3. He’s completed 215 of 273 passes of 0-9 air yards for 1,871 yards, 13 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 108.0.
This is the Chiefs’ passing game now. Kansas City also ranks third this season in yards after the catch with 2,407, behind the Detroit Lions and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This is also their passing game now.
How will the Eagles counter the short passing game? It’s a valid question. As good as the Eagles’ defense has been this season, short passes have been a Kryptonite. Against passes behind the line of scrimmage to 9 air yards, they’ve allowed 321 completions on the NFL’s most attempts (441) for 2,156 yards, 15 touchdowns, no interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 94.4.

The Chiefs do not have a vertical passing game per se. 70.3% of Patrick Mahomes’ passes this season have been behind the line of scrimmage or 0-9 air yards. But they have all kinds of concepts they’re used to spamming defenses with, and the Eagles might find that tough. pic.twitter.com/ATf8N4mjIz— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) January 30, 2025

Vic Fangio’s defense obviously allows a lot of underneath stuff, and that plays right into Patrick Mahomes’ hands. […]

All NFL games are about matchups, but Super Bowls are even more so. There’s no more time to get the wrong things right, and the bad things better. You have the players and coaches to have, and you have to array it all to the best possible result. Every play means a lot, and the combination of plays in a positive or negative sense can elevate or steamroll your efforts in a big hurry.
In Super Bowl LIX between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs, beyond the obvious stars everyone will be watching, here are three players for each team whose efforts could really slant the final outcome – for better or worse!
Philadelphia Eagles
LG Tyler Steen
The Eagles come into Super Bowl LIX with the NFL’s best offensive line, and there isn’t any question about it. That front five, under the direction of run game coordinator/offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland (University), can pass-protect with the best of them and maul your defense right off the screen when it’s time to run the ball, which it is quite frequently when you have this version of Saquon Barkley.
Of course, things tend to dissipate when members of that line are not 100%, and that’s a question mark right now. Both center Cam Jurgens (back) and left guard Landon Dickerson (knee) gutted it out in Philly’s 55-23 demolition of the Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship game, with Dickerson playing center for Jurgens in the first half, and Jurgens taking over for the final two quarters. That left Tyler Steen, the Eagles’ 2023 second-round pick from Alabama, as the left guard throughout.
Steen availed himself pretty well for a guy who had just 125 NFL reps at left guard before this game – he allowed no sacks, no quarterback hits, and two quarterback hurries – but there were some rough moments, as well. We’ll have to see where Jurgens and Dickerson are health-wise as the game gets closer, but if Steen has to deal with Chris Jones and company, and Steve Spagnuolo’s evil stunts and blitzes as a full-go starting level, that plays in Kansas City’s favor.

DL Milton Williams
It would be impossible to name an Eagles defender who hasn’t improved under Vic Fangio in the 2024 season, and Milton Williams, the multi-gap pass-rushing terror from Louisiana Tech who the team selected in the third round of the 2021 draft, has really upped his game of late. I loved the 6’3, 290-pound Williams’ college tape because I’m always in favor of pass rushers who can win from anywhere in the formation, and Williams could do that in college. He’s simply amplified his skills several times over since.
Williams has six sacks, seven quarterback hits, and 37 quarterback hurries this season in just pass-rushing snaps, and his gap versatility allows him to be a total force multiplier in straight four-man rushes, as well as stunts and blitzes. With 10 pressures on the edge and 45 as a three-tech tackle, Williams is the guy on that Eagles line where you’re wondering where he is. What you don’t wonder about much is the end result – a lot of unhappy quarterbacks. Especially when, as Patrick Mahomes currently is, said quarterbacks are playing behind problematic offensive lines.

Eagles DL Milton Williams is abysmally underrated, and he’s decided to take it out on every opposing quarterback from every possible gap. pic.twitter.com/wsbFHorOFZ— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) January 28, 2025

CB Quinyon Mitchell
The Eagles knew that they had to move on from cornerback James Bradberry as a primary factor after the 2023 season. The unfortunate decline was too clear for a formerly great player. So, the decision was made to select Toledo cornerback Quinyon Mitchell with the 22nd overall pick in the 2024 draft. Mitchell was the best cornerback in this draft class in my opinion, but as is the case for most young defensive backs, he took his share of lumps early on.
But from Week 11 through the NFC Championship Game, Mitchell has been the team’s best cornerback. In that time, he allowed 22 catches on 42 targets for 180 yards, 19 yards after the catch, two touchdowns, two interceptions, five pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 59.6. Both of those picks came in the postseason, where Mitchell has become even more of a lockdown guy.
The Chiefs are great in attacking defenses with short-to-intermediate route concepts, which makes Mitchell highly important in that equation. Over and over this season, he’s proven to be not only a defender who can match and carry speed receivers up top, but also a real problem for opponents on slants, screens, and crossers.
Mitchell’s timing is perfect to become a Pro Bowl-level cornerback, and he has officially arrived.

Quinyon Mitchell in the postseason: Five catches allowed on 15 targets, with two catches of his own. Not bad for a rookie. The Chiefs like to spam you with screens and slants, and he’s been obliterating them lately. pic.twitter.com/nIlIOumDYG— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) January 28, 2025

Kansas City Chiefs
WR Xavier Worthy
On the other side of that first-round rookie discussion, there’s Xavier Worthy, best known for setting the scouting combine 40-yard dash record with a 4.21-second time. The Chiefs selected Worthy with the 28th overall pick in the first round (yes, Bills fans, we’re well aware that they traded up with Buffalo to do it – ouch), and the thought was that with Worthy’s straight-line speed, he would give the Andy Reid’s offense a vertical dimension it hasn’t had since the Tyreek Hill trade on March 24, 2022.
So far, that hasn’t been the case. The Chiefs’ vertical passing game is actually kind of a big problem this season. Patrick Mahomes has completed just 13 of 51 passes of 20 or more air yards for 465 yards, four touchdowns, four interceptions, a passer rating of 58.5 that is the NFL’s second-worst ahead of only Anthony Richardson’s 50.1, and the league’s lowest completion percentage at 25.5.
Worthy has just four of those deep catches on 18 targets for 146 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 58.3. But while the downfield stuff hasn’t caught on yet, Worthy has proven to be quite worthy (sorry) as a short-to-intermediate target with a ton of after-catch ability. Worthy has 24 catches behind the line of scrimmage this season, and he’s averaged 9.8 yards per carry on those. On passes of 0-9 air yards, he’s bagged 38 catches with a 5.9 yards-per-catch average.
There are different ways to create explosive plays in the passing game, and as Worthy has developed as a pure receiver and route-runner, he has brought more to the playbook – which is desperately needed. Maybe he gets a couple of deep targets in the Super Bowl, but don’t be surprised if the real plan is to get the ball in Worthy’s hands quickly, and see how he can dance through the Eagles’ highly disciplined defense.
Are we excited about any Mitchell-Worthy matchups? Yes. Yes, we are.

Xavier Worthy is really putting it together in the postseason. Route exactitude, spacing, timing. He’s not just a speed guy anymore. pic.twitter.com/aHpdTYPbEz— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) January 29, 2025

LG Mike Caliendo
So, let’s get to the Chiefs’ offensive line. This is… not currently a matchup that works in Kansas City’s favor. Tackles Kingsley Suamataia, Wanya Morris, D.J. Humphries, and Jawaan Taylor have each struggled in their own special ways this season, which has led Andy Reid and his staff to take left guard Joe Thuney and kick him outside to left tackle. Thuney has held up pretty well in that role, but his re-placement has led to issues with his… well, replacement.
Mike Caliendo, the 2022 undrafted free agent out of Western Michigan, has seen his snap totals soar exponentially since Week 15, when Thuney was reassigned. Given his level of experience, Caliendo hasn’t been horrible per se – he’s allowed one sack, three quarterback hits, and nine quarterback hurries in 212 pass-blocking snaps this season – but as it often does, the tape tells a different and more expansive story than the metrics.
At 6’4 and 301 pounds, Caliendo needs to be quick off the ball and just about technique-perfect to avoid getting overpowered. He’s not always quick to recognize and react to stunts and games, and blitzes can be a bit of a problem.
We don’t yet know what the plan for Humphries is at left tackle for the Super Bowl. The Chiefs signed the former Arizona Cardinals standout in November to bolster their tackle rotation, but Humphries hasn’t played since Week 18, as he’s been dealing with a hamstring injury. If Kansas City keeps Thuney on the outside, and Caliendo has to deal with Jalen Carter and the aforementioned Milton Williams? That looks very much like a big yikes.

Pretty sure I’m the 34,875th person to make the “Mike Caliendo looked like Frank Caliendo out there” joke, but I’d feel better with Joe Thuney at LG to deal with Jalen Carter and Milton Williams. pic.twitter.com/MqN8ggxJ0z— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) January 28, 2025

DL Mike Pennel
The one obvious key matchup in Super Bowl LIX is Philly’s run game vs. the Chiefs’ run defense. If the Eagles are able to do to the Chiefs what they did to the Commanders in the NFC Championship game (36 carries for 229 yards and SEVEN RUSHING TOUCHDOWNS, FOR GOD’S SAKE), that whole three-peat thing ain’t gonna happen. The Chiefs already know about Jalen Hurts the runner, because he totaled 70 yards and three rushing touchdowns on 15 carries in Super Bowl LVII a couple years back.
Hurts was the Eagles’ only real threat as a runner then. Now, it’s Saquon Barkley Time.
This season, the Chiefs defense ranks 12th in Defensive DVOA – 17th against the pass, and ninth against the run. Their yards per carry allowed to opposing running backs of 3.78 is the NFL’s second best behind the Baltimore Ravens. They also rank second behind the Ravens in opponent success in second-level and open-field runs. But they rank 28th in opponent Power Success (percentage of runs on third or fourth down, 2 yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown), and in 23rd Stuffed Rate (percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage). Steve Spagnuolo’s defense can cap your runs if you crave explosive plays, but you can also get things going pretty consistently from the line of scrimmage.
If the Chiefs are to have any chance of at least limiting Barkley’s effect on this game (and let’s not forget Jalen Hurts and the Tush Push), especially around the line of scrimmage, a big game from defensive lineman Mike Pennel is definitely in order.
Chris Jones leads the team’s defensive tackles in stops this season with 26, but we already know about him. Tershawn Wharton ranks second with 21, but he’s more of an interior pass-rusher, and he weighs about 280 pounds. At 6’4 and 332 pounds, Pennel has the size, strength, and quickness to at least slow down that Evil Empire of a run game. This season, Pennel has 15 stops on 194 run defense snaps.

He’s not a well-known guy, but @Chiefs IDL Mike Pennel (No. 69) will need all of his 332 pounds to deal with the @Eagles’ preposterous run game. There are enough plays to make you think he can really help. pic.twitter.com/tCDUZxUW02— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) January 29, 2025

The Chiefs might want to make Pennel an every-down guy in this game. […]

Conference championship games are played in rarefied (and sometimes thin) air. The stakes are obviously higher, individual plays mean more, and the game script can veer in highly unpredictable ways that can decide things pretty quickly.
For the four teams left in the 2024 season as we turn our attention to the NFC and AFC Championship games, it’s also about maximizing the efforts of the most important players on both sides of the ball. Some key players are key players because of position, some because of talent, and some because of specific scenarios that may require them to play the games of their lives if their teams are to meet their goals of a Super Bowl appearance.
Given the importance of these X-Factors, we’ve expanded the discussion to include one player from each team on both offense and defense. Here’s one defensive X-Factor for each of the four teams that will face off on Sunday for the honor of participating in Super Bowl LIX.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia EaglesSunday, January 26, at 3:00 p.m. EST
Philadelphia Eagles: EDGE Nolan Smith
When the Eagles selected Georgia edge-rusher Nolan Smith with the 31st overall pick in the 2023 draft, it was a bit of a calculated risk. Not just because there were questions about the 6’2, 238-pound Smith’s ability to hold up to the rigors of the NFL at his size, but also because he missed several games in his last season at Georgia with a torn pectoral muscle. However, Smith’s status as basically a coach in the Bulldogs’ second straight National Championship season, and the great scouting combine he had, allayed some of those fears.
Smith was a reserve in Philly’s loaded EDGE rotation in his rookie season, totaling two sacks and nine total pressures in 95 pass-rushing snaps. And while he was light with production in the first four games of the 2024 season (no sacks and three total pressures), the light started to come on in Vic Fangio’s first season as the team’s defensive coordinator. From Week 11 through the Divisional playoffs, Smith has led the team in sacks with five, and he ranks third behind Milton Williams and Jalen Carter in total pressures with 26. Not to mention the fact that in two games against Jayden Daniels and the Commanders, Smith was able to take care of business with two sacks and several other impressive pressures.

“He’s done a great job working, and he’s constantly improved,” Fangio said this week of Smith’s development. “The more you play, the more you practice, and he’s getting more snaps now, too, since BG went down. Gets more practice plays, game plays. You get better. That’s the only way you get better is to practice and play. He was improving in those first four weeks, too. Like you’ve made note, it’s come to fruition here since.”
Smith still has all that speed and athleticism, and he’s learned to drop the hammer physically at the NFL level. Now, there are no worries.
Washington Commanders: LB Frankie Luvu
Luvu was one of my favorite defensive players to watch in the 2022 and 2023 seasons with the Carolina Panthers, because there were very few things he couldn’t do well – from off-ball run and coverage stops to legitimate edge rushes. The Commanders were just as positive about Luvu’s potential, as they signed him to a three-year, $31 million contract this offseason. Luvu has done everything possible to live up to it – and more. This season, he’s amassed eight sacks, 38 total pressures, 73 tackles, 45 stops, and he’s excelled everywhere from the edge to the box to the slot. The Commanders have an outstanding linebacker duo in Luvu and Bobby Wagner, but it’s Luvu who allows the defense to be as versatile as it is.
In two games against the Eagles this season, Luvu has been a guided missile all over the place. Two sacks, two tackles for loss, an interception, and tackles, pressures, and stops from everywhere.

“This is my first going run for it, for the playoffs,” Luvu said Tuesday. “And I’m just trying to keep my emotions here, keep it neutral, and just I know all the guys are the same way.”
Frankie Luvu with even more motivation? That could be a scary thought for any opponent.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City ChiefsSunday, January 26, at 6:30 p.m. EST
Kansas City Chiefs: LB Drue Tranquill
Most of the time, players are X-Factors in games because of their positive plays and memorable exploits. In the case of Chiefs linebacker Drue Tranquill, the story goes a different way. In the Buffalo Bills’ 30-21 Week 11 win over the Chiefs, Tranquill – who is normally a very good player and a key cog in Steve Spagnuolo’s defense – had a game he would likely rather forget. Buffalo ran the ball 31 times for 104 yards and three touchdowns.
It was a nightmare for Tranquill. He missed tackles on each of James Cook’s two touchdown runs, and he was out of position on Josh Allen’s 26-yard scramble touchdown that salted the game away with 2:27 left in the fourth quarter.

Drue Tranquill is a really good linebacker, but he’ll probably want to redeem himself in the AFC Championship game after what happened to him in Week 11 against the Bills. pic.twitter.com/28v7wVw5yd— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) January 21, 2025

Overall, Tranquill has enjoyed a good season, with three sacks, 18 total pressures, 61 solo tackles, 30 stops, and generally solid coverage. But if Tranquill doesn’t square up in those situations against Buffalo’s run game this time around – and make no mistake, Buffalo’s run game will be a very big deal – that could be a serious impediment to Kansas City’s run at a three-peat.
Buffalo Bills: Safety Taylor Rapp
For years, when the Bills put their rosters together, they could count on one thing: the NFL’s best safety duo in Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. But as is the case with everything in the NFL, things change. In the 2024 season, Buffalo’s safety responsibilities have been covered by Damar Hamlin (whose own story is incredible), 2024 second-round pick Cole Bishop, veteran Cam Lewis, and Taylor Rapp, the former Los Angeles Rams defender who signed a backup deal with the Bills in 2023, and did enough to merit a three-year, $10.625 million contract this offseason.
Rapp has alternated between box, slot, and free positions this season, and he’s most recently known for the interception he bagged against the Ravens in the Bills’ Divisional-Round win on a miscommunication between Lamar Jackson and receiver Rashod Bateman. Overall this season, Rapp has allowed 14 catches on 22 targets for 236 yards, 95 yards after the catch, two touchdowns, three interceptions, three pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 90.5.
Another of Rapp’s three interceptions this season came in Buffalo’s Week 11 win over the Chiefs, in which Rapp was in the right place at the right time for a Patrick Mahomes pressure-predicated overthrow to tight end Noah Gray.

.@BuffaloBills safety Taylor Rapp, who had a crucial interception against the @Ravens in the divisional round, also bagged a pick against the Chiefs in Week 11. Pressure caused it, but Rapp was in the right place at the right time. pic.twitter.com/oLxgXORyLX— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) January 23, 2025

Rapp has been dealing with hip and back issues this week, and right now, he’s day-to-day (as are we all). If he can’t go, it will be a hit to a Bills secondary that needs his field awareness and understanding of the game. […]