NFL mock draft 2023: Pre-Super Bowl edition

The Super Bowl is set.

But with a bye week ahead of us, it is time to turn our attention to the 2023 NFL Draft. We can get to the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles in a little bit.

This week kicks off the official start to draft season, as NFL teams — and media — descend upon Mobile for the Senior Bowl, and upon Las Vegas for the Shrine Bowl. Over the next few days, NFL hopefuls will practice, meet with, and play in front of all 32 NFL teams.

Here at SB Nation we will have you covered all week long, including with our own JP Acosta on the ground in Mobile to cover the Senior Bowl from every angle.

And what is the perfect way to kick off draft week?

With another mock draft, this time a more predictive mock, and my first one of the season.

If you just want the picks, here you go. But if you are looking for more analysis, you can keep scrolling.

(Draft order provided by Tankathon.com).

1. Indianapolis Colts (via Chicago Bears): C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

Terms of trade

Bears receive:

2023 first-round selection (4 overall)
2023 second-round selection (35 overall)
2024 first-round selection

Colts receive:

2023 first-round selection (1 overall)

Chris Ballard has made no secret of the need to get the quarterback position right this year, in the way of failed experiments involving Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan. Stroud’s performance against Georgia in the College Football Playoff, and in particular his ability to play off-structure and outside the pocket, was the kind of game that scouts will remember throughout draft season.

2. Houston Texans: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

The big question Young faces his draft season is his size. There are already reports that he is looking to weigh around 210 pounds at the Scouting Combine, and his height will be highly scrutinized as well. On the field, Young is accurate, athletic, and has the ability to quickly work through reads and break a defense down with his mind.

3. Arizona Cardinals: Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama

Anderson is one of the more complete players in the draft. While at Alabama, he was used in various spots along their defensive line, primarily on the edge but there were times you would see him in either the B- or the A-Gaps. Off the edge, he relies on power and could benefit from adding a few more pass-rushing moves to his arsenal, but the technique is coming. A dip-and-rip sack against Vanderbilt from this season is an example of what he could become.

4. Chicago Bears (via Indianapolis Colts): Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Terms of trade

Bears receive:

2023 first-round selection (4 overall)
2023 second-round selection (35 overall)
2024 first-round selection

Colts receive:

2023 first-round selection (1 overall)

For many, Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter is the best prospect in the entire draft. Georgia’s imposing defense was a big reason for their back-to-back national championships, and Carter played a massive part for both units. His strength and power at the point of attack command double teams each drive, but his ability to push the pocket and penetrate is a massive plus for the NFL.

5. Seattle Seahawks (via Denver Broncos): Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech

Like many, I am fascinated by what the Seattle Seahawks will do with this pick. Could they draft a quarterback? Certainly. But I tend to believe that the Seahawks go in a different direction, addressing their defense in this first round and seeing if there is a way to position themselves for a quarterback in next year’s draft, perhaps via a trade down, should Geno Smith struggle in 2023.

What might they draft instead? An EDGE who has moved up boards throughout the fall with the strength and power to play on the inside, but the power and motor to align on the outside. For example, his first-quarter sack this season against N.C. State, where he split a double team on the edge and worked his way to the QB, is a flash of what he can do on the outside.

His fit in Seattle might be ideal, as the Seahawks utilize some odd fronts so he can align as a DE in a three-man surface, but he can also kick outside in sub packages.

6. Detroit Lions (via Los Angeles Rams): Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson

Are we seeing the comeback of the defensive tackle?

Perhaps, but before getting to Bresee, a few words on the Lions, who are in a similar position to the Seahawks. Like Seattle, Detroit has a pair of first-round picks and a quarterback who was good this year, but still faces questions about whether he is the future or not. Many Lions fans are hoping that the organization adds a QB this cycle, perhaps while still giving Jared Goff one more year as that quarterback develops. But with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson returning to Detroit, giving Goff one more year makes a certain degree of sense.

So, like Seattle before them, they add to the defensive front. Bresee is athletic, explosive, and has the versatility to play almost anywhere along the defensive front. You might see him anywhere from a 0-technique right over the center, to a two-point stance outside the tackle. He dealt with some injuries while at Clemson, but dropping him into the Lions’ defense, with Aidan Hutchinson on the outside is the kind of move that Dan Campbell might bang the table for this spring.

7. Las Vegas Raiders: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern

The battle for OT1 will be fascinating to watch this draft season. Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski fascinates me, as he showcases the technique, and the varied approach, that will serve him well in the NFL. He mixes up his pass sets, keeping rushers on their toes when coming off the ball.

However, as we see each cycle, there is already a question of whether he would be better suited to playing guard in the NFL.

He looks like a tackle to me.

As for why the Raiders would draft a tackle? Well, someone has to block for Tom Brady …

8. Atlanta Falcons: Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson

The Falcons could go in a few different directions with this selection. Help along the offensive line is a need this offseason, and they could benefit from adding another pass catcher to pair with Drake London. Cornerback depth is another issue, and you might consider a quarterback, depending on how you feel about Desmond Ridder.

However, adding a versatile player to their defensive front is another need, and they check that box with Murphy. While Murphy spent more time on the edge than his teammate, Bryan Bresee, you would still see him kicked inside at times. He offers a combination of power and a quick first step that is ideal for playing inside in sub packages, but you could even see him dropped into coverage off the edge in certain situations.

9. Carolina Panthers: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports

Here we go.

Am I making this pick for the sole purpose of annoying my dear co-worker – and Panthers fan – James Dator?

Perhaps.

But with the move to hire Frank Reich, you can see a path toward picking a talented quarterback in the draft who needs some development. Say what you want about Carolina’s decision to hire Reich, and not Steve Wilks, but Reich was part of the group in Philadelphia that turned Carson Wentz from a raw prospect into a potential MVP candidate in 2017, before his knee injury.

He’ll not get to try something similar with Levis. The Kentucky QB can make spectacular throws, and if he puts it all together…

10. Philadelphia Eagles (via New Orleans Saints): Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

When Howie Roseman acquired another first-round selection for this draft, there was a chance it would be used on a quarterback. But with Jalen Hurts playing at a near-MVP level this season, the Eagles can go in a much different direction.

With Darius Slay, James Bradberry, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and Avonte Maddox, the Eagles put together a fantastic secondary this season. But with Bradberry entering a void year on his deal, and Gardner-Johnson entering free agency, odds are the Eagles will need to add a cornerback.

Similar to the battle for OT1, the battle for CB1 might be the most intriguing of the entire draft cycle. Cornerback also looks to be one of the deepest positions this season, with perhaps 15 prospects in the mix to be drafted in the first three rounds. How they come off the board might come down to scheme fit more than anything else, but Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez is certainly among those being considered for that top CB spot. His blend of size, change-of-direction skills, and coverage versatility is ideal for modern NFL defenses.

11. Tennessee Titans: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

Let the run on offensive tackles begin.

Looking through the draft order, there are a few spots in the draft where a position run seems in the cards. Later in the first round, a CB run seems in the mix, and we could see a WR run as well.

Here starts the tackle run, as all three of these next teams have a need upfront. We start with the Titans and Broderick Jones from Georgia. Jones only has 19 starts over his short college career, but his combination of athleticism and potential is hard to ignore. While he might still be refining his technique, he is working from an impressive starting point.

12. Houston Texans: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State

In this scenario, the Texans draft Bryce Young at the top of the board.

Now they add someone to protect him.

Johnson slid to left tackle for the 2022 season after spending the 2021 campaign as the Buckeyes’ starting right guard. He settled into the role with ease, perhaps not a surprise given that he was a five-star recruit as a tackle. Johnson has the athleticism and footwork to handle life on the left side in the NFL and can mix up his pass sets to keep opposing pass rushers off-balance.

13. New York Jets: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma

Someone has to protect Aaron Rodgers …

Yes, figuring out quarterback is a huge need in New York. In announcing Nathaniel Hackett as their new offensive coordinator, Jets head coach Robert Saleh indicated that the organization would look at a veteran option, and almost immediately the connections between Hackett and Rodgers were made.

Assuming QB is not a pick here, the Jets need to solidify their offensive line. Making sure they have the five best options up front is a priority for Joe Douglas. Harrison is athletic, with quick feet for a tackle of his size, and helps get the Jets one step closer to getting their best five in front of the quarterback next season. With the impending return of Mekhi Becton — who moved to right tackle last season — Harrison now gives the Jets their left tackle for 2023, and beyond.

Whoever that is.

14. New England Patriots: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU

The mere suggestion of the Patriots drafting another X receiver early might cause New England fans some nausea.

Over the Bill Belichick Era, the Patriots have done a fantastic job at identifying talent at the slot receiver position. Wes Welker, Julian Edelman, and now Jakobi Meyers all come to mind.

But the boundary receiver spots have been a mixed bag at best. Yes, they traded for Randy Moss, but you knew what you were getting with him. Draft picks such as Chad Jackson, Aaron Dobson, and most recently N’Keal Harry all failed to live up to the billing. Fourth-round pick Malcolm Mitchell played a huge role for the Patriots as a rookie in Super Bowl LI but retired after two years due to injuries.

Could Johnston break that streak? Perhaps. He projects as a prototypical X receiver in the NFL, with the ball skills and speed to stretch defenses vertically, but as we saw against Michigan he can also work underneath to create explosive plays.

Hiring Bill O’Brien is the first step in fixing the offense in New England. Finding ways to generate explosives in the passing game is the second. Johnston is a nod to that need.

15. Green Bay Packers: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

This year offers perhaps the deepest tight end class in recent history. Mayer, Utah’s Dalton Kincaid, and Georgia’s Darnell Washington are players currently discussed as first-round options, with players like Tucker Kraft from South Dakota State and Iowa’s Sam LaPorta looking to crash that first-round party.

Mayer is one of the more complete prospects this season, with the ability to play with his hand in the dirt and handle the blocking responsibilities asked of TEs at the next level. But Mayer also has the production in the passing game to fit what NFL offenses are looking for in the position. Notre Dame used him in-line, in the slot, on a wing, and as an isolated tight end in Y-iso sets, and he handled everything the team asked of him.

Where he might stand out the most is with the ball in the air. Watch his contested catches this season – including those against USC – and you can easily see how that will translate to the next level.

16. Washington Commanders: Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia

With recent reports that the Commanders are telling prospective offensive coordinators that Sam Howell is the QB for the team going forward, it seems likely that QB is not an option for Washington in the first round.

Cornerback, however, is.

Again, this is a deep and talented group, and seeing how people stack this cornerback class will be fascinating. Ringo combines sprinter’s speed with the size and length needed at the position. His straight-line speed is a weapon on defense, and his film is complete with examples of him matching vertical routes, or breaking on shallow crossers in man coverage and disrupting at the catch point. His PBU against Georgia Tech this season on a 3rd and 13 is a prime example. He handles zone coverage responsibilities well, but his best role is likely as a corner in a heavy man-coverage scheme.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State

Yes, it is low-hanging fruit.

But the Steelers have a need at cornerback, and Porter showed this season the traits you expect from a highly-regarded recruit and potential first-round selection. Watching him, the length just jumps off the screen, similar to studying Sauce Gardner a year ago. Much like Gardner, Porter puts that length to use, disrupting throws at the catch point or maintaining his relationship with the nearest threat.

His best role is as a press-man corner in a heavy man coverage system, but he can also play well in zone. He is very patient when in press alignment, but when it is time to be physical, he is more than up to the challenge.

18. Detroit Lions: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

Watch Devon Witherspoon play.

Listen to maybe five minutes of Dan Campbell.

Enough said.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

Doug Engle / USA TODAY NETWORK

Now we are getting spicy.

As noted earlier, this scenario unfolds in a world where Tom Brady is taking his talents to Vegas for the “Vegas Residency” portion of his NFL career, alongside Celine Dion, Def Leppard, and Aerosmith. That means there is a QB need in Tampa Bay. Might the Buccaneers be facing a rebuild? Perhaps, but if Brady does leave town – as he reportedly indicated to teammates after the playoff loss to the Dallas Cowboys – that leaves only Kyle Trask and Blaine Gabbert on the roster at QB.

Richardson is a fascinating prospect, and I have a feeling that as the draft cycle unfolds, he is going to move closer to the top of the board for many. I also think he is closer to being NFL-ready than many would have you believe. I have been trying for almost a decade to match a QB to a Bruce Arians organization, and this might finally be the year those efforts pay off.

20. Seattle Seahawks: Brian Branch, S, Alabama

The Russell Wilson trade was huge for the Seahawks …

Having used the first-round pick they received in that trade on the defensive front, now the Seahawks turn to the secondary. Seattle has a need at safety, and Branch is the best of the bunch. But describing him as a safety does not do him justice, as he aligned everywhere for the Crimson Tide over his collegiate career.

This season alone saw him used everywhere on the field. He saw snaps as a boundary corner, a split-field safety, a post safety, a box safety, and a slot defender, and he even was used as a pass rusher off the edge in certain situations. He is perhaps at his best in zone coverage situations, as his feel for the game makes him a threat to opposing passers. His interception against Kansas State in the Sugar Bowl – which saw him peel off an inside receiver and jump a hitch route on the outside – is a prime example.

21: Miami Dolphins: (Forfeited)

The Miami Dolphins forfeited their first-round pick as a result of investigations into allegations of tampering and violations regarding the “integrity of the game.”

If they were able to make a selection here, running back Bijan Robinson, linebackers Trenton Simpson or Noah Sewell, or one of the other cornerbacks remaining would be options.

22. Los Angeles Chargers: Jordan Addison, WR, USC

A tight end is certainly an option for the Chargers with this selection, and as noted earlier when discussing the Packers’ selection of Michael Mayer, Dalton Kincaid and Darnell Washington are other TEs generating first-round buzz.

Receiver is another option for Los Angeles. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are a talented pair, but with both working through injuries this season, adding another outside option in the passing game is a wise move for the Chargers.

Addison put up huge numbers for Pittsburgh a season ago, helping Kenny Pickett become a first-round selection. His production dipped a bit at USC, but the traits are still there. He is explosive both before and after the catch and can be a weapon in the screen game. Giving Justin Herbert another playmaking option seems like a wise investment for the Chargers.

23. Baltimore Ravens: Rashee Rice, WR, SMU

The first order of business is getting Lamar Jackson back in purple and black.

The second order of business is giving him a threat on the outside.

I was skeptical when I turned on Rice to study him, but within minutes I was sold. He is confident and fearless when working over the middle, he trusts his hands at the catch point – consistently attacking the ball in flight rather than letting it get into his chest – and he is a weapon in the vertical passing game.

Rice also has the ability to play both on the boundary, and in the slot, which you can see on his 75-yard touchdown reception against Tulsa to open the game this season. In fact, that play might be a prime example of what he offers. Rice erases a huge pre-snap cushion on a post route, makes a tough adjustment to the throw, and then finishes after the catch by making the first defender miss and breaking two tackle attempts en route to the end zone.

24. Minnesota Vikings: Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah

Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Vikings need to address the defensive side of the ball in this draft.

Despite a number of investments in the secondary in recent years, including Andrew Booth Jr. in the second round a year ago, cornerback remains a concern in Minnesota. Utah cornerback Clark Phillips III gives this secondary a big boost. Phillips has fantastic change-of-direction skills, and can play sticky man coverage, but also can function well in zone coverage designs. His interception against Oregon is a prime example of his zone-coverage skills, as he starts in the slot, but jumps underneath a hitch route on the outside and takes it the other way.

His feel for the game, particularly when in man coverage, is another strength. His interception against Arizona State – where he starts in off-man and reads a stop route to perfection – is a great example of his technique and awareness.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars: Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia

This is absolutely a luxury pick.

Remember, the Jaguars expect Calvin Ridley back next season, which would bolster their wide receiver room. While the emergence of Evan Engram this season has been fantastic to see – and is saving some of my pre-draft takes from 2017 – Engram is entering free agency.

Ideally, the Jaguars bring him back … and still draft Washington. Why? I’m picturing a “big 11” personnel package with Ridley and Christian Kirk on the outside, and Engram along with Washington at tight end. Engram can operate as the move-type TE, while Washington gives Jacksonville an in-line option who can handle the run-blocking part of the position well.

That would cause problems for opposing defenses.

26. New York Giants: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

Wide receiver is certainly one of the needs in New York.

The signing of Kenny Golladay has yet to pay off, as the high-priced free agent has just one more touchdown than you do, dear reader, over his two years with the Giants. Saquon Barkley led the team in targets last season, and the Giants need to rebuild this position group.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is one of the more puzzling prospects this draft cycle. Entering 2022 he looked like a lock for the first round, but injuries have seen his stock crater in the media space. But opinions are varied. For example, ESPN’s Todd McShay has made the case that Smith-Njigba is not a first-round pick, while his colleague Mel Kiper Jr. has him inside the top 15 in his first mock draft.

Here, we split the difference somewhat. Smith-Njigba can carve out a role in the slot for the Giants, giving Brian Daboll and Daniel Jones another option in the passing game.

27. Dallas Cowboys: Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee

Here is a little inside baseball.

Prior to starting full-time here at SB Nation, I co-hosted the “Talking the Star” podcast with my good pal, and long-time Cowboys fan, Connor Livesay. Since going full-time, I have made some occasional guest appearances on the show with Connor, something that we will be ramping up during the draft season.

You can find the takes from the summer, but Connor and I expressed concern over the Dallas wide receiver room all off-season. Those concerns only increased after the team traded Amari Cooper to the Cleveland Browns.

And while Connor and I both had hopes for Jalen Tolbert, from where I sit, Dallas still needs to add at receiver.

Hyatt exploded onto the national stage with a five-touchdown performance in Tennessee’s win over Alabama. His speed is a huge asset, and while there will be questions about the offense he played in at Tennessee – and how his game translates to the next level as a result – playing across from CeeDee Lamb should give him the kind of space he saw on Saturdays.

28. Buffalo Bills: O’Cyrus Torrence, IOL, Florida

After the Bills lost to the Bengals in the Divisional Round, the questions about whether their window had closed surfaced.

That still seems a year or two off, but the Bills need to regroup after a tough end to a season that was filled with expectations. One of their more pressing needs entering 2023 is solidifying the interior of the offensive line. Torrence is a physical, imposing force in the run game – something that the Bills could certainly benefit from – and anchors well against power moves in the interior while in pass protection. There is room for improvement, and opinions on him are varied, but he is a solid option for Buffalo at this point in the first round.

29. Cincinnati Bengals: Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina

Studying the Bengals throughout the season and in preparation for the playoffs, not a ton of needs stood out. They could add a tight end at some point in the draft and could make some additions to the secondary, but really they could go in almost any direction with this pick, but for quarterback or wide receiver.

South Carolina CB Cam Smith is a fascinating study. He is competitive, and physical, moves extremely well, and is an asset in run support. The production might not jump out at you – Smith recorded one interception this past season – but you can see his disruptive nature on film. Whether it was a PBU on a vertical route against Missouri to get South Carolina off the field on third down, or a near-interception against Charlotte where he was playing in almost a half-field safety role, Smith can get to the ball and cause problems for an offense.

30. Denver Broncos (via Miami Dolphins): Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson

Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

I sat down to study Trenton Simpson the other morning.

One of the first plays I saw was a proverbial “put the pen down” moment. Against Miami, Simpson was mugged up in the A-Gap, and after bluffing a blitz he dropped underneath to spy the quarterback. When the QB broke the pocket, Simpson exploded downhill, tracking him in a flash for a sack.

From there I was hooked. You might see him playing in a stack alignment, fitting against the run, on first down but then see him flexed towards the boundary over a wide receiver on 3rd and long. He is explosive, versatile, and contributes both against the run and in the passing game.

The biggest knock on him might be two-fold. First, the value of off-ball linebackers in today’s NFL. Second, what exactly is his role in the league? Is he a stack linebacker, an overhang player, or a positionless-defender?

How about this role?

Football player.

31. Kansas City Chiefs: Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa

Wide receiver is a position often addressed by the Chiefs in early mock drafts, but with last year’s selection of Skyy Moore, and the acquisition of Kadarius Toney via a trade, Kansas City has two young receivers to develop already in the fold.

Another potential need is offensive tackle, but I’m taking the focus to the defensive side of the football. Frank Clark is a free agent after 2023, so adding a pass rusher with some room to grow is the kind of forward-thinking move that the Chiefs have made in recent years.

Lukas Van Ness is generating a ton of buzz as draft season begins, despite being used in more of a rotational role for Iowa this season. Still, the potential is there, as Van Ness has the power, burst, and explosiveness to win both on the edge, and on the inside. You might see him aligned as a defensive tackle in sub packages but win with speed and power, as he did for a sack against Wisconsin. You might see him on the edge, blowing up the pocket on third down as he did in the second quarter against Purdue to help the Hawkeyes get off the field.

The potential is there, and the Chiefs place a bet on that at the end of the first round.

32. Philadelphia Eagles: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

I can hear you now.

“Howie Roseman will never draft a running back in the first round.”

What about at the end of the first round, after drafting a cornerback earlier?

Ten, maybe five, years ago Bijan Robinson might be the first-overall selection. But as we have seen in recent years, running backs are sliding down draft boards. The reliance on the passing game, coupled with the wear-and-tear that comes with the position, makes drafting a running back early an increasingly unlikely proposition.

But with running back being a need for Philadelphia, Roseman takes advantage of that market inefficiency, drafting one of the better overall prospects at the end of the first round. He is also a near-perfect fit in Philadelphia, as his skill set translates best to an offense that relies heavily on zone-blocking concepts.

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